Henry Moulin ABR, CRES

Saskatoon, SK | 306-221-9221 | henry@saskatoonrealestate.com

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Number of Listings Declining

The total number of new residential listings in Saskatoon on the Multiple Listing Service (MLS®) year to date totaled 7,111. This represents a 12% decline when compared to the same period last year with 8,065 properties listed. The total number of residential listings for Saskatoon and region year to date is 10,929, a 10% decline from last year. The individual month end totals for new listings in 2018 was down each month as well compared to 2017 totals. This decline in new listings has contributed to lower inventory levels for available properties in Saskatoon. At the end of October there was a total of 1,808 active residential properties for sale in Saskatoon and 1,095 in the regional market surrounding Saskatoon. The five-year average for active listings in Saskatoon is 1,806 while the ten-year average is 1,487. “Since 215, the Saskatoon market has experienced higher inventories of active listings, this puts downward pressure on pricing and often upward pressure on the sales to new listing ratio.”  comments Jason Yochim, CEO of the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. The median price of a home in Saskatoon has declined as well since 2015 as has the average price. The average residential price was $332,000 at the end of October, down 4% from a year ago and $20,000 from two years ago. Although much focus in real estate is on the average price, the average can be misleading and is easily skewed. A better indicator of what is happening with home prices is the Home Price Index. The Home Price Index establishes attributes for a typical single-family home with a base value in 2005. From that starting point, changes in value are recorded over time to get a better sense of what is happening to pricing and where prices are trending. The value for the typical single-family home in January of 2005 was $140,400. This value reached its peak in May of 2015 at $329,500. Currently this value is at $312,600 virtually unchanged from a month earlier. The Benchmark price for a typical Townhouse style property in Saskatoon was $222,900 last month, for apartment style properties, $180,100 in October. For more information on HPI go to saskatoonrealtors.ca.


Year to date, the total number of residential sales on the MLS® system in Saskatoon was 2,964, down 2% from last year. For Saskatoon and region the total number of sales was 4,074, a 1% decline from 2017. Total MLS® sales of 285 in Saskatoon for October was unchanged from the same month last year and but down 9% from October 2016. “It s encouraging to see home sales at a comparable level to last year in spite of economic challenges and the “stress test” changes to financing earlier this year.” Comments Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. “It would seem that sellers are recognizing the importance of expert advice from our REALTOR® members in pricing to the current market.” he adds.

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Increase in July Home Sales 

The month of July saw a significant increase of over 25% in the year-over-year Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) sales activity with a total of 390 unit sales in the month. This compares with 310 transactions in July of 2017. Total MLS® transactions for Saskatoon year to date was down 3.3% with 2,082 home sales compared to 2,152 to the end of July 2017. 


“Although one month does not constitute a trend, it is very encouraging to see such a significant increase in activity during a month when many buyers typically leave town on vacation” comments Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. Other positive indicators are a decline in the number of new MLS® listings coming on to the market. 


A total of 710 new MLS® listings in July represented a decrease of 10% over last year and well below the five year average of 830 listings. Fewer new listings combined with an increase in sales reduced the number of active listings from 2,109 in June to 2,048 at the end of July. The five year average for active MLS® listings is 1,977 units. “Lower inventory levels will help move the market from a buyer’s market towards balance and stabilize home prices.” adds Yochim.

MLS® sales below $200,000 totaled 57 transactions in July, 55% higher than July of 2017, while year to date sales increased by 26% with 307 transactions. Homes that sold between $300-400,000 on the MLS® in July showed an increase of 27% over the previous July while year to date the number of sales in this price range totaled 1,229, a decline of 5%. Home sales in excess of $400,000 totaled 540 transactions year to date, a decline of 12% over the previous year.

The Home Price Index (HPI) Value for single family residential home sales in Saskatoon took a slight decrease in July of 0.1% to $315,400 compared to $315,800 at the end of June. The HPI measures the change in value over time for a typical single family home with a standard set of attributes. This rate of change reports similar to the Consumer Price Index and is the most accurate indicator of home pricing.


The HPI value for townhouse style residences continued on its upward trend, increasing by 1.2% for the month to $234,400. For more information on HPI go to saskatoonrealtors.ca . Year-to-date, the average sale price was $334,676, a 4.1% decrease from the same period last year. Average prices can be misleading as outlier sales can skew the average sale value one way or the other over a short period of time. This is why the median price of HPI value is a better indicator of the market.

Last month, the average home in Saskatoon took 49 days to sell in Saskatoon last month. The five year average for days to sell in the month of July is 48 days.
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Home Listings Down Year to Date

  

Fewer home owners seem ready to put their home on the market this year compared to last. In May, a total of 943 properties were added on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Saskatoon representing a 9% decrease from last May. Year to date there were 13% fewer homes listed year to date in Saskatoon.

 

The total number of active listings in Saskatoon at the end of May was 2,001, just slightly above the five year average of, 1,945 units. “Typically we see the highest number of active listings between May and September.” comments Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®, “It’s the most active time in our market largely due to favorable weather.” He adds. Inventory levels for active MLS® listings reached an all-time high in July of last year with 2,210 homes for sale in Saskatoon. At the current rate of sales it would take five and a half months to liquidate the current stock of active listings. 


In May there were 364 home sales, a decrease of 13% from last May. Year-to-date sales for Saskatoon are down 7% with a total of 1,345 residential MLS® home sales. Home sales so far this year have declined in every price range with the exception of homes under $200,000 which saw a 30% increase for a total of 203 sales. The price range with the greatest decline in sales were homes priced between $450-500,000 with a year-to-date total of 85 sales, a 17% drop from last year. Homes selling between $750,000 and $1M are on par with last year at 19 sales. Homes in excess of $1M however are off sharply with three MLS® sales year to date. In 2017, there were three home sales in May alone over $1M and nine year to date.

The sales to listing ratio has decreased from 43% in April to 39% in May. The sales to listing ratio is a comparison of the number of sales for a period of time to the number of new listings. “Saskatoon remains a buyer’s market. However, homes that are priced to market and in good condition will still command great interest and in some cases competing offers.” comments Yochim. Last month, the average home in Saskatoon took 47 days to sell in Saskatoon last month, this is the lowest time to sell so far this year.

Year-to-date, the average sale price was $334,449, a 4% decrease from the same period last year. Since averages can be misleading, a better reflection of the market is the median. The median home sale price year to date is $320,000. The five year average for median residential home sale prices in Saskatoon is $341,980.

The Home Price Index Composite Benchmark Price (HPI) continued in an upward trend for most home types (except apartment style) again in May. The HPI is the most accurate indicator of where home prices are trending. For more information on HPI go to saskatoonrealtors.ca .

REALTORS® subscribe to a strict code of ethics and are dedicated to developing professional standards and continuing education in the real estate profession. This is not the case for those who sell real estate in the province and who are not members of an association of REALTORS®.

 

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Spring Home Sales Show Positive Increase 

Residential home sales in Saskatoon were 6.7% higher than April of last year with 335 units selling last month. This represents a third of home sales in Saskatoon so far this year. Although the year to date sales for the first four months of 2018 is down 4.8% over the same period in 2017, last month’s increase in sales helped to close the gap. The increase in April sales also was a welcome reversal of a two month trend of declining sales for February and March. Unit sales for April showed increases for homes priced under $350,000. Of the 202 sales in April under $350,000, 73 were condominiums. Homes that sold between $400,000 and $450,000 showed a 30% increase in sales in April over the same month last year with 39 sales. Homes that are properly priced in that entry level have been seeing competing offers in many cases.

Also of note, year to date there have only been two residential sales over $1M in Saskatoon compared with six for the first four months in 2017. The number of active residential properties for sale in Saskatoon at the end of April was 1,834 units. This is consistent with the five year average of 1,830. This is largely due to a decrease in the number of new listings brought to the market. The number of new listings for the first third of 2018 was 2,594 compared to 3,024. This represents more than a 14% decline year over year.

The sales to listing ratio increased to 43% from 37% a year ago. The sales to listing ratio is a comparison of the number of sales for a period of time to the number of new listings. Although the sales to listing ratio is moving towards balance,  we are still in a buyer’s market. The increase in this ratio in April was largely due to the 6.5% reduction in new listings and the comparative 6.7% increase in sales. Last month, the average home in Saskatoon took 53 days to sell compared with the five year average of 47 days. 

The average sale price saw its first increase this year by 1.75% to $318,729 in April. For the first quarter of 2018, the average home sale price in Saskatoon was $333,826. Since averages can be misleading, a better reflection of the market is the median. The median home sale price increased slightly from March to $320,000. The five year average for median residential home sale prices in Saskatoon is $332,650. 

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Slight Downward Pressure on Home Prices 

At the end of the first quarter the number of MLS home sales was 723 units or a 1% increase over last year. The number of properties listed for sale year to date was 2,193, just 2% lower than the first three months of 2016. “Although the first quarter unit sales are comparable to 2016, pricing seems to be slipping slightly” comments Jason Yochim, CEO of the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® “The median price of $320,000 is down 4.3% from a year ago and the average price of $342,100 is down 1.5%.” he adds. The Home Price Index (HPI) published by the Canadian Real Estate Association indicates a downward trend in pricing as well. The composite price, an aggregate of all home types, for Saskatoon has been trending downaward since August of 2016 when the benchmark value was $309,500 compared to $297,900. This composite value reached its peak of $313,800 in July of 2015. The HPI is based on a benchmark value of $133,400 established in January of $2005. This value is indexed every month thereafter representing the changes to that base value. The downward pressure on pricing is likely to remain until there is a decrease in the current inventory of just over 1,850 active listings or an increase in demand.  

Multi-family sales of 220 units was up year to date by 18% compared to 187 unit sales last year. The number of single family sales of 510 units was a slight decline of just over 4% year over year. The federal changes to mortgage qualification introduced in October of 2017 no doubt have had an impact on some who found it harder to qualify for a single family home. These changes increased the number of multi family transactions due buyers qualifying at a substantially lower purchase price. This is reflected in a 5% increase in sales between $200,000 and $350,000 in the first quarter. During this same period, homes priced from $350,000 to $600,000 saw a 13% decline in unit sales.  

There is currently enough existing inventory to last almost six months based on current sales activity. This is slightly higher than the five year average of 4.84 months. For the homes that do sell, currently on average it takes 47 days. This is two days more than the five year average. These homes are selling at just under 98% of the asking price. This is a reflection of the “intelligent buyer” that we see in today’s market place. “Today’s consumer has access to detailed information at their fingertips and know very well what the true market price of a home should be. Sellers are equally informed and when they are able to think objectively, they price to market and the result is a quicker sale with the sale price tight to list.” according to Yochim. The problem lies in most of us unable to be objective even in the face of raw data. The mindset of many home sellers is that their home is worth more than the one down the street because they used ‘heavy duty’ nails in the construction or similar rationale. “This is one of the most critical reasons for enlisting the advice of a professional REALTOR® in pricing your home.”  

Activity in the area surrounding Saskatoon has experienced a decline of almost 17% in the number of sales for the first quarter of the year with 167 total sales. A positive here though is the average price is up 9.2% and the days on market is 64 days compared to 70 for last year. Martensville and Warman have not been affected the same way in the past three years. The city of Martensville experiences 38 sales and 153 listings so far in 2017. By comparison, in the first quarter of 2017 Warman recorded 57 sales and 144 new listings. In the first three months of 2015 Warman had 81 sales compared with 26 in Martensville.  The Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® has a membership of just over 600 licensed and knowledgeable REALTORS® who can provide sound market advice. REALTORS® also subscribe to a strict code of ethics and are dedicated to developing professional standards and continuing education in the real estate profession.  

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For many the average sale price is used to benchmark where the market is at. Year to date statistics reinforce why that is not a sound practice. As of the end of September, a total of 2,936 unit sales were recorded, a 7% drop from the same period in 2015. By comparison, the average sale price of $351,835 remains virtually unchanged from one year ago. Furthermore, the average sale price for September 2016 was 6% higher than last September. The reason, an increase in the number of properties selling at the higher end of the price range coupled with a decline in more affordable home sales. More specifically, year to date the number of units selling between $300,000 and $500,000 declined by 12% while the number of units selling above $750,000 increased by 20%.

 

The Home Price Index (HPI) tool was created by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) as a way to more accurately reflect changes in home pricing and predict pricing trends. The HPI uses a starting point of January of 2002 and establishes a “benchmark” value for a typical property type. This value is then indexed over time to reflect changes in the market. The composite benchmark value for a home in Saskatoon in January of 2002 was $115,000. Currently the composite benchmark price is $308,600. This index has changed very little since January when it was at $305,400. This would indicate little change in value over the first nine months of the year and has remained virtually unchanged since June.  New listings for September were down 20% compared to September of 2015. 

 

“A reduction in new listings has a positive impact on the overall inventory levels in Saskatoon which have been elevated since the spring of 2015”. comments Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. “Ideally we would like to see the number of active listings around 1,500 units” he adds. At the end of September, the number of active listings was 1,841, the five-year average is 1,625 units. The high water mark for active listings was 2,081 in June of 2015.

 

The number of sales for September was 324 units which is a 9% reduction from last year. Year to date the total unit sales was down 7% compared to 3,167 units a year ago. The average time to sell a home in Saskatoon is currently 51 days, the five-year average is 41 days. These homes have been selling for 97.4% of the asking price. “The key element in the sale of a property is proper pricing, buyers are more educated today than ever before,” adds Yochim. 

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Coldwell Banker Signature

345 4th Ave South

Saskatoon,SK S7K 1N3

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