Henry Moulin ABR, CRES

Saskatoon, SK | 306-221-9221 | henry@saskatoonrealestate.com

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Home Listings Down Year to Date

  

Fewer home owners seem ready to put their home on the market this year compared to last. In May, a total of 943 properties were added on the Multiple Listing Service® (MLS®) in Saskatoon representing a 9% decrease from last May. Year to date there were 13% fewer homes listed year to date in Saskatoon.

 

The total number of active listings in Saskatoon at the end of May was 2,001, just slightly above the five year average of, 1,945 units. “Typically we see the highest number of active listings between May and September.” comments Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®, “It’s the most active time in our market largely due to favorable weather.” He adds. Inventory levels for active MLS® listings reached an all-time high in July of last year with 2,210 homes for sale in Saskatoon. At the current rate of sales it would take five and a half months to liquidate the current stock of active listings. 


In May there were 364 home sales, a decrease of 13% from last May. Year-to-date sales for Saskatoon are down 7% with a total of 1,345 residential MLS® home sales. Home sales so far this year have declined in every price range with the exception of homes under $200,000 which saw a 30% increase for a total of 203 sales. The price range with the greatest decline in sales were homes priced between $450-500,000 with a year-to-date total of 85 sales, a 17% drop from last year. Homes selling between $750,000 and $1M are on par with last year at 19 sales. Homes in excess of $1M however are off sharply with three MLS® sales year to date. In 2017, there were three home sales in May alone over $1M and nine year to date.

The sales to listing ratio has decreased from 43% in April to 39% in May. The sales to listing ratio is a comparison of the number of sales for a period of time to the number of new listings. “Saskatoon remains a buyer’s market. However, homes that are priced to market and in good condition will still command great interest and in some cases competing offers.” comments Yochim. Last month, the average home in Saskatoon took 47 days to sell in Saskatoon last month, this is the lowest time to sell so far this year.

Year-to-date, the average sale price was $334,449, a 4% decrease from the same period last year. Since averages can be misleading, a better reflection of the market is the median. The median home sale price year to date is $320,000. The five year average for median residential home sale prices in Saskatoon is $341,980.

The Home Price Index Composite Benchmark Price (HPI) continued in an upward trend for most home types (except apartment style) again in May. The HPI is the most accurate indicator of where home prices are trending. For more information on HPI go to saskatoonrealtors.ca .

REALTORS® subscribe to a strict code of ethics and are dedicated to developing professional standards and continuing education in the real estate profession. This is not the case for those who sell real estate in the province and who are not members of an association of REALTORS®.

 

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Spring Home Sales Show Positive Increase 

Residential home sales in Saskatoon were 6.7% higher than April of last year with 335 units selling last month. This represents a third of home sales in Saskatoon so far this year. Although the year to date sales for the first four months of 2018 is down 4.8% over the same period in 2017, last month’s increase in sales helped to close the gap. The increase in April sales also was a welcome reversal of a two month trend of declining sales for February and March. Unit sales for April showed increases for homes priced under $350,000. Of the 202 sales in April under $350,000, 73 were condominiums. Homes that sold between $400,000 and $450,000 showed a 30% increase in sales in April over the same month last year with 39 sales. Homes that are properly priced in that entry level have been seeing competing offers in many cases.

Also of note, year to date there have only been two residential sales over $1M in Saskatoon compared with six for the first four months in 2017. The number of active residential properties for sale in Saskatoon at the end of April was 1,834 units. This is consistent with the five year average of 1,830. This is largely due to a decrease in the number of new listings brought to the market. The number of new listings for the first third of 2018 was 2,594 compared to 3,024. This represents more than a 14% decline year over year.

The sales to listing ratio increased to 43% from 37% a year ago. The sales to listing ratio is a comparison of the number of sales for a period of time to the number of new listings. Although the sales to listing ratio is moving towards balance,  we are still in a buyer’s market. The increase in this ratio in April was largely due to the 6.5% reduction in new listings and the comparative 6.7% increase in sales. Last month, the average home in Saskatoon took 53 days to sell compared with the five year average of 47 days. 

The average sale price saw its first increase this year by 1.75% to $318,729 in April. For the first quarter of 2018, the average home sale price in Saskatoon was $333,826. Since averages can be misleading, a better reflection of the market is the median. The median home sale price increased slightly from March to $320,000. The five year average for median residential home sale prices in Saskatoon is $332,650. 

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Home Inventory Levels Declining

A year over year decline in home sales and new listings in February contributed to a declining availability of homes in the Saskatoon market. At the end of last month there was a total of 1,588 active residential listings in Saskatoon. This represented a 4% decline from a year ago when there were 1,659 properties available. Although the number of sale transactions in February, 211, represented a 6% decline from the same month last year, strong sales in January helped the overall sales year to date to remain 1% ahead of last year. Year to date, a total of 413 residential sales have been recorded on the MLS® in the city of Saskatoon. In February, REALTORS® in Saskatoon listed a total of 1,159 residential properties, this is a 14% decline compared to last February’s number of 1,332.


In February of 2016, a total of 1,410 homes were listed for sale. The number of transactions that occurred in Saskatoon was 203 units which represents an 11% increase over January of 2017. The overall dollar volume for home sales in Saskatoon was just under $70 million which is a 6% decline from last February. The year to date total volume of transactions is unchanged from last year at $139 million. Year to date sales in the region surrounding Saskatoon, which includes the cities of Warman and Martensville, totaled 122 units representing a 14% increase. The overall dollar volume for this surrounding market was just under $39.5 million for the first two months of the year, an increase of 12% compared to last year. “For the past couple of years inventory levels have hovered around 2,000 available properties.” Comments Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® (SRAR) “It is definitely a positive trend to see inventory levels shrinking, this is helpful for slowing price decline.” he adds. The average sale price for a home in Saskatoon slipped 1% in February.

The Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark value declined only very slightly in the last 30 days to $292,800. Although this is its lowest point since February of 2012 the decline in the composite price appears to be slowing. With the exception of a couple of months in the spring of last year, the HPI composite value has been in an overall decline since August of 2016 when the value was $317,600. 

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Housing Sales Up Over January 2018

January home sales in Saskatoon are off to a positive start in 2018. The number of transactions that occurred in Saskatoon was 203 units which represents an 11% increase over January of 2017. The five year average for January is 194 units. Last month’s sales activity also resulted in an increase in the overall dollar volume of 10.5% to $90,673,143 representing the highest dollar volume for January since 2014. Sales in the region surrounding Saskatoon, which includes the cities of Warman and Martensville showed a 27.5% increase with 65 transactions and an 11.7% increase in dollar volume at $18,049,600.

“While it is still very early in the year, the past three months have shown trends of increasing sales for Saskatoon, which is certainly a positive sign after many months of lower sales.” according to Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® (SRAR) “It is good to see inventory levels shrinking as well which will help with upward pressure on pricing in time.” he adds.

The average and median home price in Saskatoon in January also increased. The average sale price for a home in Saskatoon was $344,771, up 1% from last January, while the median price increased by 4.1% to 330,000. Significant increases in the number of homes selling in the higher price ranges contributed to these upward pricing changes. Overall the number of sales between $400,000 and $1M increased by 45% with 64 sales. The number of homes that sold in January between $500,000 and $750,000 made up just over a third of the 64 transactions. The number of home sales between $200,000 and $300,000 remained strong and consistent with last January at 56 transactions. Many of these would be multi-family sales which helps to absorb inventory in that sector of the market.

The Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark value declined by 4.1% in January to $293,300, its lowest point since February of 2012.

With the exception of a couple of months in the spring of last year, the HPI composite value has been in an overall decline since August of 2016 when the value was $317,600. “If inventory levels continue to decline due to absorption and fewer properties being listed, home prices should expect to see some increase later in the year.” predicts Yochim. The number of active listings in Saskatoon at the end of January was 1,529, the lowest level in the past three years for January and a 4% reduction from last year. This was aided by the increase in sales and a 14% decline in the number of new listings for January.

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Home Sales Increase in December

Home sales of 205 units in Saskatoon, was up 11% in December when compared to the same month in 2016. Sales activity in the area surrounding Saskatoon saw a 13% increase for December. This increase in activity could be partially attributed to the mortgage rule changes for conventional buyers that took effect January 1st 2018. Home buyers with 20% or more down payment now have to qualify at an interest rate that is 200 basis points higher than the posted rate, or the Bank of Canada’s five-year rate, whichever is higher. Listing activity on the other hand, declined dramatically with an 18% reduction in new listings for December year over year. “This decrease in listing activity could be the result of seller’s fatigue from having been on the market for an extended time period without securing an offer.” according to Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® (SRAR) “The increase in December sales and decline in hew listings is a positive for decreasing high inventory levels” he adds.

The year to date story for 2017 however is one that indicates a slower market overall when compared to 2016. The overall sales volume recorded by the SRAR was just short of $1.6 Billion for the year representing a 9% decrease from 2016. This is the third straight year of decline since the $2.1 Billion market peak realized in 2014. Home sales of 3,491 units in Saskatoon for 2017 represented a 5% decline from 2016. This is significantly lower than the five year average of 3,957 sales. In 2017 there was a total of 8,972 homes listed for sale in the Saskatoon market representing a 3% decline from the year previous. The sales-to-listing ratio for the year was 35%, which is a ratio of the number of sales for the year when compared to the number of new listings. In other words, roughly a third of the homes listed for sale ended up actually selling. The number of days on market for a home in Saskatoon in December was 61. This was a sharp increase from 51 in December of 2016 as well as the five year average of 52 days.

Not surprisingly, with lower sales and still a large inventory of homes to choose from, home prices continued to see downward pressure. The median price for a home in Saskatoon declined by 3.3% in December to $324,000 while the average price showed a half point decline to $339,520 for the month. The Home Price Index (HPI) composite benchmark value declined by 3.7% in December to $295,100, its lowest point since March of 2012. The HPI composite value has been in an overall decline since August of 2016 when the value was $317,600.

“Successfully selling a home in this current market requires more that information” comments Yochim “Sellers need the guidance to understand how historical sales data impacts their pricing decision.” 

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Buyers Market Continues

Conditions remain ideal for those in search of a new home in Saskatoon. There was a total of 1,967 active listings at the end of October in Saskatoon plus an additional 1,022 available residential properties in the region outside Saskatoon. This is an increase of almost 12% in active residential listings compared to the same point last year. With upcoming mortgage rule changes in the new year, relatively low interest rates and more available homes, this is an ideal time for buyers to tie up that purchase. The sales to listing ratio for Saskatoon was just over 40% in Saskatoon in October. This means that for every 10 homes that were listed, four were successfully sold. The number of sales for October in Saskatoon was 287 units. Although this was an 8% decline compared to October 2016, it represented an increase of 10% over Septembers sales of 262. Year to date sales for Saskatoon a the end of last month were 3,030 units which is a 6.7% decrease for the same period last year. Year to date a total of 8,069 home were placed on the market in Saskatoon, down slightly from 8,217 the previous year. “I expect that there may be a slight spike in sales as the year winds down” comments Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®, “this would be due to recently introduced mortgage qualification rules for conventional buyers plus a sense of upward pressure on interest rates.” The federal government continues to address issues with overheated markets in Canadas two largest cities. These rule changes however affect local real estate markets much differently.

The average days on market for a home in Saskatoon was 54 days which is unchanged from September and slightly higher when compared to October of 2016 where it took an average of 50 days to sell. Not surprising, with higher inventory levels, and declines in sales, the average selling price for a home in Saskatoon continues to decrease, with a year over year decline of 3.2% to $331,889. The Medan price however remained unchanged at $330,000.  The MLS® Composite Home Price Index (HPI) Benchmark Price increased by 5.1% to $328,600. The Composite HPI measures the rate of change in a benchmark price for a typical home and is the most accurate indicator of pricing direction in a market. This increase would suggest that in spite of a decline in the average home price, the trend is moving upward for home prices.

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September Home Sales Decline


The Saskatoon real estate market saw a 19% decline in MLS® home sales in September compared to a year ago. Total MLS® sales for September of 2016 totaled 324 compared to just 262 in 2017. The year-to-date total of 2,745 MLS® sales in Saskatoon, is a 6% reduction compared to 2,935 MLS® sales for 2016. Overall, the entire number of sale transactions recorded by the association in Saskatoon and region at the end of September was 3,701 units compared to 3,957 in 2016. This translates to a 10% decline in dollar volume or roughly $140 Million dollars. The number of available properties for sale declined by around 100 units from August to September with a total of 2,082 available properties on the market. The five year average for active listings on the market is 1,797 units. “Ideally it would be nice to see the number of active listings around that five year average or lower” comments Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®, “that level of inventory would bring us closer to balanced market conditions.” By comparison, in 2007 when the market was a strong sellers’ market with escalating home prices, there was an average of just over 400 active listings through the year. Ten years later that average is just under 2000 active listings.   

The average length of time for a home to sit on the market is 55 days, just slightly above the five year average for days to sell in September which is 46. The sales to listing ratio is a comparison of the number of sales for the month relative to the number of new listings taken. It is considered to be a balanced market when this ratio falls between 40-60%. A percentage above this range is considered sellers’ market while a percentage below is considered a buyers’ market. The sales to listing ratio for September is was 34%, well below the five year average of 42%. “In a buyers’ market with elevated inventory levels it is critical to understand pricing and to properly prepare your home to compete against other homes in your price range.” cautions Yochim.   

The average selling price for a home in Saskatoon for the year decreased by 1.4% to $347,043. The median price also declined slightly by 2.1% to $327,900. In July of this year the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® elected to remove lot sales from the aggregate number of home sales to give a more accurate picture of pricing. This change has helped to support the average price to some degree in comparison to last year.  The MLS® Composite Home Price Index (HPI) Benchmark Price increased by 3.6% to $326,700, up 3.6% from a year ago. This increase is also impacted by the removal of lot sales from the total sales volume. The Composite HPI measures the rate of change in a benchmark price for a typical home and is the most accurate indicator of pricing direction in a market.

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Buyer’s Market Continues

 

A slight decline in home sales year over year, low interest rates and stable home prices coupled with elevated inventory levels, continues to make Saskatoon an ideal market for home buyers. At the end of August there were 2,183 active listings in Saskatoon, just slightly down from the record set last month. “In the coming months, home buyers will look back with hindsight and realize how opportune the market was with all of these elements in place.” According to Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® “It is only a matter of time before the market shifts as it always does.” The concern is that buyers waiting for the bottom of the market in order to make a purchase, may end up paying more when buying on the upswing.

The average home is taking approximately 55 days to sell which is the greatest number of days in the past several years. The five year average for days to sell in August is 46. Homes that have been priced relative to this market will see a sale in much less time. The sales to listing ratio compares the number of new listings against the number of sales for the month. In August, the sales to listing ratio was 41% which is consistent with the past three months. This means that for every five home listed there are two sales. The sales to listing ratio year to date was 37.7% which is down 3.5% compared to 2016. Furthermore, based on the current level of home sales, it would take between six and seven months to clear out the active listings, this is above the five year average of just over five months.

Two thirds the way through the year, Saskatoon and area saw a total of 3,344 transactions, down 5% from last year. The total number of homes listed for sale, year to date, was 9,904 which is virtually unchanged from 2016. The total dollar volume for Saskatoon and region year to date was $1,139 billion, down 9% from the same period last year. Within the Saskatoon market, the number of transactions year to date was 2,484 representing a 5% decline from the same period last year.

With lots to choose from ,the average and median price continue to show signs of slipping. The average price year to date declined by 1% to $347,414 while the median price declined by 1.5% to $329,950. Considering the challenging economy, high supply of housing and a softened demand, pricing has not been dramatically impacted so far. “Pricing of a home is one of the most important decisions in a successful sale.” Comments Yochim, “REALTORS® are the most informed when it comes to knowing the market for a specific property at a specific time.” he adds. 

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Competitive Market for Some Home Sellers

At the halfway point in the year, housing sales reflect that of the year to date total in 2016 with 1,850 unit sales in Saskatoon. The average sale price of $350,000 is virtually unchanged as well from a year ago. Also, the median price year to date at $330,000 is comparable to that of last year. Helping to sustain these price indicators is a notable increase (25%) in home sales over $600,000 which is offsetting a decline (3%) in sales below $600,000, as of June 30th. The total number of sales over $600,000 in Saskatoon was 101 units of which 90 were single family homes. Comparatively there were 1,765 transactions at the end of June below $600,000. The number of condominium units sold so far this year was 533 units representing a 5% increase over last year. With the mortgage qualification changes implemented last October, some buyers had to shift their purchase decision from single family to condominium to fit a reduced purchase price. The total dollar volume for Saskatoon and area of $846M is the lowest year to date total since June of 2011. The highest dollar volume reached for the midpoint of the year was June of 2014 at $1.1B.

Much has been said about the number of homes available in Saskatoon. Currently there are still over 2,100 active listings in Saskatoon. This amount of available homes would take just over five months to liquidate at the current rate of sales. This amount of active property also means that we are still firmly in a buyers’ market with a sales to listing ratio of 41%, comparable to last June but below the five year average of 50%. In the overheated market of 2007 there were only 375 active listings and a sales to listing ratio of an incredible 79%. This was at a time when Saskatoon’s population was around 210,000 residents for a per capita of one active listing for every 560 residents. In 2012 this increased to 1,254 active listings and a population of 239,420 for a per capita of one listing for every 190 residents. Saskatoon’s current population of 268,158 equates to one active listing for every 125 people.

On average it takes 45 days to sell a home in Saskatoon. This is the lowest days on market average for any month in 2017. “Average days on market can be misleading as well.” cautions Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. “If homes are properly priced in any price range and in any market condition, they can easiiy see an offer in much less time.” The key is to get sound advice on the current market for each specific home. “Our REALTOR® members are market experts who are objective and can guide a seller in this critical decision.” he adds.

The market surrounding Saskatoon had a year to date decline in sales of 11% with a total of 456 transactions. Active listings in this market at the end of June were 1,112 which is a 4% decline over last year.

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Competitive Market for Some Home Sellers

Home sellers need to put forward their best efforts when pricing and presenting their home for sale in any market but especially now with a total of 2,112 active listings in Saskatoon. This is the highest number of homes for sale eclipsing the peak of 2,081 in June of 2015. “Pricing is the most important decision a seller can make, especially in a buyers’ market.” advises Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. “This is something that requires the assistance of an objective and educated REALTOR® to reflect the market.” Of these, just under 1,300 are single family homes and about 850 are condominiums with close to 500 of these apartment style. Additionally, 350 of the apartment style condominiums are priced between $150-350,000, making this a very competitive segment of the market. With 848 single family homes priced between $250-500,000, there is a lot of choice for buyers who are being selective on what they want and what they want to pay. Homes priced over $500,000 total 278 available properties with 76 of these in excess of $750,000. The MLS® system saw 1,035 new listings for Saskatoon in May, a 7% increase over last May, and the highest number of new listings recorded in a single month.

In May there were 423 sales in Saskatoon representing a 7% increase compared to last May. So far year to date the total number of sales is down 2% at 1,459 units. Price ranges between $250-500,000 showed positive increases to the number of sales year over year. In 2016. In May of 2017 there were 358 sales in this price range compared to 329 last May. There was a 13% decrease in the number of sales priced between $500-750,000 in May of 2017. Year to date there were 12 sales in excess of $1,000,000 in Saskatoon. Six of these sales were single family homes, two were bare land condo units at the Willows and one sale was a downtown apartment unit. The home that sold for the most so far this year was $2,000,000.

The average number of days required to sell a home in Saskatoon is 48 days. The five year average for May is about 41 days. Based on the number of sales that occurred in May and the number of homes available on the market, it would take 5 months to liquidate the current inventory of properties for sale. The average selling price continues to remain stable at $$349,000. The median sale price also remains relatively unchanged year to date at $329,250. Although the total MLS® dollar volume was up 11.5% when comparing this May 2017 to last, the year to date dollar volume is down 1.3% at $670,000,000.

The market surrounding Saskatoon showed an increase in sales of 10.4% in May, however year to date sales in that market were down 8%. The average selling price for this area is up 7% year to date at $331,450. This market includes the cities of Warman and Martensville as well as other surrounding communities and acreage property.  .

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Home Sales Down So Far in 2017

Total home sales in Saskatoon year to date saw a 5% decrease with a total of 1,037 units changing hands. The month of April was also notably quiet with a total of 315 sales, a 16% decrease from 2016. Listing activity is also down by 4% compared to last year with a total of 3,038 new listings introduced to the market so far this year. Listing activity for April was also lower by 10% compared to April of 2016. Inventory levels remain quite high with a total of 1,975 active listings at the end of April. This is considerably higher than the five-year average of 1,700 units. For the last three years, there has been in excess of 1,900 homes available for sale at the end of April. It would be ideal to have around 1,500 units available for sale at this time of year. “Higher inventory levels are a great opportunity for buyers for selection and a reasonable purchase price,” says Jason Yochim, CEO of the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® “The market will eventually shift and those who waited will end up with less selection and more competition for the home they offer on” he adds. 

Higher inventory levels typically mean lower prices, however, for homes priced over $600,000, there has been an increase in the number of sales which sustains the average price even with fewer sales. Even though the average price remains unchanged year over year, the median price has decreased by 1.9%. So far in 2017, there is a 65% increase in homes that sold over $600,000 with a total of 93 sales compared to 56 in 2016. In April alone there were 19 sales over $650,000 compared to just 9 last April, three of the sales were in excess of $1M. Comparatively, there is a notable decrease in homes selling below $500,000. By the end of April 2016 there was a total of 438 home sales, so far this year there are only 358. Year to date the sale of single-detached properties declined by 11% while the number of multi-family unit sales increased by 4%. 

The sales to listing ratio of 37% also confirm that we are firmly in a buyer’s market. This is the lowest it has been for the month of April in over 5 years. At the current rate of sales, it would take over six months to liquidate the existing number of homes that are for sale, the five-year average for months of inventory is 4.5 months. Currently, it takes about 50 days for a home to sell in Saskatoon, just slightly longer than the 46 days of a year ago. Homes that are selling continue to realize sale prices in excess of 97% of the asking price. This underscores the importance of proper pricing in a buyers market. “A buyers market is not one for speculative selling” cautions Yochim. “Today's consumers are very well informed and with many homes to choose from are not afraid to move on if the seller is unwilling to respond to an offer at market value” he adds. 

Activity in the markets surrounding Saskatoon continues to experience a decline in both sales and listing activity. A total of 249 sales at the end of April is a 14% decrease from 2016. The number of homes listed for sale for the first four months of 2017 is down by 13%. The sales to listing ratio for this market is 28% while the time it takes the average house to sell is two months. Homes are realizing sale prices of 94% of the asking price. The number of active listings for the area surrounding Saskatoon, which includes the cities of Warman and Martensville, was down 15% with 979 available properties.

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Positive Indicators in Saskatoon Home Market

Year to date, the Saskatoon home market shows positive signs in a few of the key indicators. “There are a few key statistics that we watch ever month to get a sense of where our market is at and where it may be headed” according to Jason Yochim, CEO of the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® .“We keep a close eye on the number of transactions, the inventory levels and the change in pricing.” He adds. 

Year to date home sales are up 4% over 2016 with 558 unit sales. This is comparable to the number of home sales in 2015. The total dollar volume for those sales was just over $186 million, representing a 2% increase over last year. At the end of February, the inventory level for available residential property on the MLS® system in Saskatoon was 1,659 units, 5.4% lower than last year. The lower inventory levels are largely due to a significant drop in the number of new listings added to the MLS® system. So far this year there have been 1,337 new listings in the system compared to 1,410 last year. When comparing new listings for the last month, there were 15.7% fewer properties added to the market this past February than last February. 

A decline in new listings coupled with an increase in sales resulted in a sales-to-listing ratio of 37.4%in February. This is a significant increase from last February where this ratio was 30.9%. A market with a sales-to-listing ratio below 40% is considered to be a solid buyers market. This indicates a positive move towards a more balanced market. “Although we are seeing these positive indicators quite early on, these statistics indicate a shift in the marketplace in a positive direction,” comments Yochim. 

Home prices remain relatively unchanged year to date with the average price down a mere 0.7% to just under $340,000. The median price of $320,000 represents a slight drop of 1.6% year over year. The Home Price Index (HPI) is considered to be the most accurate measure of home values and where the market prices are trending. The HPI composite price is an aggregate of various residential home types in a particular market and is a measurement of change in value over time. A composite value was established with a base year and has been indexed on a monthly basis. The composite value in February was $297,900 representing a 1.2% decrease from a year ago. This value had been on a downward trend since mid-2016 which is not surprising considering elevated inventory levels through the year and a buyers market. 

The average number of days for a home to sell in Saskatoon was 54 days. This is only slightly longer than in 2016 with an average of 52 days. Because today's real estate buyers are well educated on the market, homes are selling at 97% of their asking price which is consistent with last year. 

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Slight Downward Pressure on Home Prices 

At the end of the first quarter the number of MLS home sales was 723 units or a 1% increase over last year. The number of properties listed for sale year to date was 2,193, just 2% lower than the first three months of 2016. “Although the first quarter unit sales are comparable to 2016, pricing seems to be slipping slightly” comments Jason Yochim, CEO of the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® “The median price of $320,000 is down 4.3% from a year ago and the average price of $342,100 is down 1.5%.” he adds. The Home Price Index (HPI) published by the Canadian Real Estate Association indicates a downward trend in pricing as well. The composite price, an aggregate of all home types, for Saskatoon has been trending downaward since August of 2016 when the benchmark value was $309,500 compared to $297,900. This composite value reached its peak of $313,800 in July of 2015. The HPI is based on a benchmark value of $133,400 established in January of $2005. This value is indexed every month thereafter representing the changes to that base value. The downward pressure on pricing is likely to remain until there is a decrease in the current inventory of just over 1,850 active listings or an increase in demand.  

Multi-family sales of 220 units was up year to date by 18% compared to 187 unit sales last year. The number of single family sales of 510 units was a slight decline of just over 4% year over year. The federal changes to mortgage qualification introduced in October of 2017 no doubt have had an impact on some who found it harder to qualify for a single family home. These changes increased the number of multi family transactions due buyers qualifying at a substantially lower purchase price. This is reflected in a 5% increase in sales between $200,000 and $350,000 in the first quarter. During this same period, homes priced from $350,000 to $600,000 saw a 13% decline in unit sales.  

There is currently enough existing inventory to last almost six months based on current sales activity. This is slightly higher than the five year average of 4.84 months. For the homes that do sell, currently on average it takes 47 days. This is two days more than the five year average. These homes are selling at just under 98% of the asking price. This is a reflection of the “intelligent buyer” that we see in today’s market place. “Today’s consumer has access to detailed information at their fingertips and know very well what the true market price of a home should be. Sellers are equally informed and when they are able to think objectively, they price to market and the result is a quicker sale with the sale price tight to list.” according to Yochim. The problem lies in most of us unable to be objective even in the face of raw data. The mindset of many home sellers is that their home is worth more than the one down the street because they used ‘heavy duty’ nails in the construction or similar rationale. “This is one of the most critical reasons for enlisting the advice of a professional REALTOR® in pricing your home.”  

Activity in the area surrounding Saskatoon has experienced a decline of almost 17% in the number of sales for the first quarter of the year with 167 total sales. A positive here though is the average price is up 9.2% and the days on market is 64 days compared to 70 for last year. Martensville and Warman have not been affected the same way in the past three years. The city of Martensville experiences 38 sales and 153 listings so far in 2017. By comparison, in the first quarter of 2017 Warman recorded 57 sales and 144 new listings. In the first three months of 2015 Warman had 81 sales compared with 26 in Martensville.  The Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® has a membership of just over 600 licensed and knowledgeable REALTORS® who can provide sound market advice. REALTORS® also subscribe to a strict code of ethics and are dedicated to developing professional standards and continuing education in the real estate profession.  

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Positive Start to 2017 Home Sales

Home sales in January were cause for optimism for the year ahead with a 6% increase year over year. Home sales of 185 units last month represented the highest January total since 2014, the five-year average for January is 195. Another positive indicator is the number of homes available for sale. At the end of January, there was a combined total of 1,592 homes for sale in the Saskatoon market, representing the second lowest monthly total in almost two years. The lowest inventory level was December of 2016 with a total of 1,443 properties on the market. “An increase in sales in a typically quiet month is very encouraging” comments Jason Yochim, CEO of the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® “especially in the wake of the tougher mortgage qualifications introduced last October.”

At current inventory levels, anticipating no increase in demand and no new properties listed for sale, it would take over eight months to liquidate the current inventory of properties. The five-year average for available inventory in the Saskatoon market is just under five months. The “sales to listing ratio” is an indicator of whether we are in a buyers or sellers’ market. It is determined by dividing the number of sales by the number of new listings for a period of time. When this ratio is at 50%, the market is considered balance. The last couple of years has favored buyers in the marketplace with an average sales to listing ratio of 40%. January typically has an uptake of listing activity and quieter sales activity which is reflected in a sales to listing ratio at 26%; the five-year average is 30%.

Homes priced below $400,000 saw a much-needed increase in activity compared to last January with 143 sales between $200,000 and $400,000, a 20% increase year over year. The average sale price for January of $341,800 represented a 4% decrease compared to last year. In 2016 a steady number of sales over $750,000 helped stabilize the average price in spite of a 5% decline in sales. This emphasizes that using an average to determine the true market picture is easily misleading. The median price for last month was $318,500 which was the lowest median price in almost five years. A more reliable indicator of the market is the MLS® Home Price Index® (HPI). It is considered to be the most accurate determinant of where a real estate market is trending. The HPI composite benchmark price has also been trending downward, although very slightly for several months. 

In January, on average it takes 54 days to sell a home in Saskatoon which is consistent with the five-year average of 51 days. This compares to 45 days which is the average of the past 5 years. “In any market, a home that is priced to current market conditions should sell in even less time, often within a week or two.” comments Yochim. “Buyers are well educated on the market and are not fooled by optimistic sellers. However, they are willing to pay market price for the right home in any market. For homes that are selling, the sale prices are being realized within 97% of the asking price.”

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Accurate Pricing Key in Successful 2017 Market

Year over year unit sales for the city of Saskatoon saw a 7% decline in 2016. As at December 31, there was a total of 3,679 transactions recorded versus 3,933 in 2015. The total dollar volume for Saskatoon also indicated a 7% decline by years end. There was also a decline in the number of new listings in 2016 of 5% with 9,290 properties placed on the MLS system in Saskatoon last year. In other words, 38% of the homes that were listed ended up selling which is considered a firm buyers’ market. This ratio is what is referred to as a sales-to-listing ratio. A ‘balanced market’ is when one home sells for every two listed and is considered a balanced market at a 50% sales-to–listing ratio. The market for the month of December was in balanced territory with 191 sales and 392 new listings.

The market surrounding Saskatoon which includes the cities of Martensville and Warman saw a year end decline in unit sales by 11% with a total of 1,010 sales by December 31. The total number of new listings for 2016 in the markets outside of Saskatoon was 3,192, a sales-to-listing ration of just under 32%. The city of Martensville saw a 10% increase in unit sales in 2016 while Warman saw a whopping 35% decrease in units sold from 2015 to 2016. Other bedroom communities surrounding Saskatoon saw very little change in units sold year over year.

A home in Saskatoon took an average of 51 days to sell realizing 96.7% of the asking price on average. “There are buyers out there who are ready to act and are willing to pay market value.” Comments Jason Yochim, CEO, Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®, “What this tells me is that if a seller is serious about selling their home the best thing they can do is get sound advice on pricing to the current market we are in. The result is a quicker sale for the maximum sale price. Buyers are well educated and not often fooled into overpaying.” He adds.

The average selling price for a home in Saskatoon in 2016 was just over $350,000 which was only a decline of 1% compared to the average selling price of $354,000 in 2015. This average price was maintained by a year over year increase in the number of homes that sold over $750,000.

The MLS® Home Price Index® is considered to be the most accurate determinant of where a real estate market is trending. The composite benchmark value is an aggregate value of various property types and is used to compare changes in market values and trends. The composite benchmark value has been trending downward slightly since August of 2016. The composite value of $299,700 is down 1.6% from the same period in 2015 and looks to continue downward for the near future.

“2017 is not likely to see a significant change in market conditions, however being properly informed on what those market conditions are and how to properly price is where one of our REALTOR® members is invaluable” adds Yochim. “One of the best ways to stimulate an economy is through a home sale. The average home sale in Saskatchewan generates nearly $50,000 in spin off economic activity. Multiply that by 3,700 transactions.” He adds. REALTORS® also subscribe to a strict code of ethics and are dedicated to developing professional standards and continuing education in the real estate profession.

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The month of November saw a decline in sales activity as well as new listings coming on the market in Saskatoon and region. Total dollar volume year to date was $1.65 B, a 4% reduction from 2015 and 18% lower than the same period in 2014.The number of homes that sold in Saskatoon for November was 243 units representing a 14% reduction compared to November 2015. As of the end of last month there was a cumulative total of 3,489 home sales, this is 7% lower than a year ago. The number of homes listed for sale to the end of November 2016 was 8,897. Currently there are1,687 residential properties available for sale in Saskatoon, only the month of January had less product available with 1,612 units. At the current level of sales it would take nearly seven months to liquidate this inventory.

 

 The average selling price continues to remain virtually unchanged at just over $350,000. Two years ago the average selling price two years ago by comparison was $357,000, at a time when the market was more active. “An increase in sales in the higher end homes has helped to support the average price in the Saskatoon market” states Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. Sales in every price range below $750,000 saw decreases in unit sales however homes priced above that increased year over year. For sales over $1M there were 25 units sold year to date compared to 13 units a year ago. Homes in the price range between $750-800,000 were up 50% year to date over 2015.

 

 The current sales to listing ratio for November was 37% which is firmly a buyers’ market as it has been all year. Homes are currently taking 50 days on average to sell in Saskatoon with sellers realizing 97% of the asking price. “These statistics tell me that sellers who price to the market will realize a sale in much less time than the average of 50 days and close to their asking price. Those who do not price to market are typically responsible for the low sales to listing ratio.” Comments Yochim. “Buyers are more educated than at any other time and typically know where the market is at.

 There are positives in this quieter real estate market. The recent selling out of the much awaited River Landing condominium project in less than four days proves that location, location, location is key in any market conditions. This occurred in spite of an oversupplied condominium market with somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,000 multi-family units available for sale.

 

 “The best advice I can give to those who are needing to sell is to get sound pricing, marketing and timing advice from a professionally licensed and trained REALTOR® member of The Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. Real estate is local to specific markets in Saskatoon and every seller’s situation is unique. Impartial and objective advice is critical in a successful sale of residential real estate.” cautions Yochim. REALTORS® also subscribe to a strict code of ethics and are dedicated to developing professional standards and continuing education in the real estate profession.

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The month of November saw a decline in sales activity as well as new listings coming on the market in Saskatoon and region. Total dollar volume year to date was $1.65 B, a 4% reduction from 2015 and 18% lower than the same period in 2014.The number of homes that sold in Saskatoon for November was 243 units representing a 14% reduction compared to November 2015. As of the end of last month there was a cumulative total of 3,489 home sales, this is 7% lower than a year ago. The number of homes listed for sale to the end of November 2016 was 8,897. Currently there are1,687 residential properties available for sale in Saskatoon, only the month of January had less product available with 1,612 units. At the current level of sales it would take nearly seven months to liquidate this inventory.

 

The average selling price continues to remain virtually unchanged at just over $350,000. Two years ago the average selling price two years ago by comparison was $357,000, at a time when the market was more active. “An increase in sales in the higher end homes has helped to support the average price in the Saskatoon market” states Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. Sales in every price range below $750,000 saw decreases in unit sales however homes priced above that increased year over year. For sales over $1M there were 25 units sold year to date compared to 13 units a year ago. Homes in the price range between $750-800,000 were up 50% year to date over 2015.

 

The current sales to listing ratio for November was 37% which is firmly a buyers’ market as it has been all year. Homes are currently taking 50 days on average to sell in Saskatoon with sellers realizing 97% of the asking price. “These statistics tell me that sellers who price to the market will realize a sale in much less time than the average of 50 days and close to their asking price. Those who do not price to market are typically responsible for the low sales to listing ratio.” Comments Yochim. “Buyers are more educated than at any other time and typically know where the market is at.

 

There are positives in this quieter real estate market. The recent selling out of the much awaited River Landing condominium project in less than four days proves that location, location, location is key in any market conditions. This occurred in spite of an oversupplied condominium market with somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,000 multi-family units available for sale.

 

“The best advice I can give to those who are needing to sell is to get sound pricing, marketing and timing advice from a professionally licensed and trained REALTOR® member of The Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. Real estate is local to specific markets in Saskatoon and every seller’s situation is unique. Impartial and objective advice is critical in a successful sale of residential real estate.” cautions Yochim. REALTORS® also subscribe to a strict code of ethics and are dedicated to developing professional standards and continuing education in the real estate profession.

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For many the average sale price is used to benchmark where the market is at. Year to date statistics reinforce why that is not a sound practice. As of the end of September, a total of 2,936 unit sales were recorded, a 7% drop from the same period in 2015. By comparison, the average sale price of $351,835 remains virtually unchanged from one year ago. Furthermore, the average sale price for September 2016 was 6% higher than last September. The reason, an increase in the number of properties selling at the higher end of the price range coupled with a decline in more affordable home sales. More specifically, year to date the number of units selling between $300,000 and $500,000 declined by 12% while the number of units selling above $750,000 increased by 20%.

 

The Home Price Index (HPI) tool was created by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) as a way to more accurately reflect changes in home pricing and predict pricing trends. The HPI uses a starting point of January of 2002 and establishes a “benchmark” value for a typical property type. This value is then indexed over time to reflect changes in the market. The composite benchmark value for a home in Saskatoon in January of 2002 was $115,000. Currently the composite benchmark price is $308,600. This index has changed very little since January when it was at $305,400. This would indicate little change in value over the first nine months of the year and has remained virtually unchanged since June.  New listings for September were down 20% compared to September of 2015. 

 

“A reduction in new listings has a positive impact on the overall inventory levels in Saskatoon which have been elevated since the spring of 2015”. comments Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. “Ideally we would like to see the number of active listings around 1,500 units” he adds. At the end of September, the number of active listings was 1,841, the five-year average is 1,625 units. The high water mark for active listings was 2,081 in June of 2015.

 

The number of sales for September was 324 units which is a 9% reduction from last year. Year to date the total unit sales was down 7% compared to 3,167 units a year ago. The average time to sell a home in Saskatoon is currently 51 days, the five-year average is 41 days. These homes have been selling for 97.4% of the asking price. “The key element in the sale of a property is proper pricing, buyers are more educated today than ever before,” adds Yochim. 

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