Competitive Market for Some Home Sellers

At the halfway point in the year, housing sales reflect that of the year to date total in 2016 with 1,850 unit sales in Saskatoon. The average sale price of $350,000 is virtually unchanged as well from a year ago. Also, the median price year to date at $330,000 is comparable to that of last year. Helping to sustain these price indicators is a notable increase (25%) in home sales over $600,000 which is offsetting a decline (3%) in sales below $600,000, as of June 30th. The total number of sales over $600,000 in Saskatoon was 101 units of which 90 were single family homes. Comparatively there were 1,765 transactions at the end of June below $600,000. The number of condominium units sold so far this year was 533 units representing a 5% increase over last year. With the mortgage qualification changes implemented last October, some buyers had to shift their purchase decision from single family to condominium to fit a reduced purchase price. The total dollar volume for Saskatoon and area of $846M is the lowest year to date total since June of 2011. The highest dollar volume reached for the midpoint of the year was June of 2014 at $1.1B.

Much has been said about the number of homes available in Saskatoon. Currently there are still over 2,100 active listings in Saskatoon. This amount of available homes would take just over five months to liquidate at the current rate of sales. This amount of active property also means that we are still firmly in a buyers’ market with a sales to listing ratio of 41%, comparable to last June but below the five year average of 50%. In the overheated market of 2007 there were only 375 active listings and a sales to listing ratio of an incredible 79%. This was at a time when Saskatoon’s population was around 210,000 residents for a per capita of one active listing for every 560 residents. In 2012 this increased to 1,254 active listings and a population of 239,420 for a per capita of one listing for every 190 residents. Saskatoon’s current population of 268,158 equates to one active listing for every 125 people.

On average it takes 45 days to sell a home in Saskatoon. This is the lowest days on market average for any month in 2017. “Average days on market can be misleading as well.” cautions Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. “If homes are properly priced in any price range and in any market condition, they can easiiy see an offer in much less time.” The key is to get sound advice on the current market for each specific home. “Our REALTOR® members are market experts who are objective and can guide a seller in this critical decision.” he adds.

The market surrounding Saskatoon had a year to date decline in sales of 11% with a total of 456 transactions. Active listings in this market at the end of June were 1,112 which is a 4% decline over last year.

Competitive Market for Some Home Sellers

Home sellers need to put forward their best efforts when pricing and presenting their home for sale in any market but especially now with a total of 2,112 active listings in Saskatoon. This is the highest number of homes for sale eclipsing the peak of 2,081 in June of 2015. “Pricing is the most important decision a seller can make, especially in a buyers’ market.” advises Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. “This is something that requires the assistance of an objective and educated REALTOR® to reflect the market.” Of these, just under 1,300 are single family homes and about 850 are condominiums with close to 500 of these apartment style. Additionally, 350 of the apartment style condominiums are priced between $150-350,000, making this a very competitive segment of the market. With 848 single family homes priced between $250-500,000, there is a lot of choice for buyers who are being selective on what they want and what they want to pay. Homes priced over $500,000 total 278 available properties with 76 of these in excess of $750,000. The MLS® system saw 1,035 new listings for Saskatoon in May, a 7% increase over last May, and the highest number of new listings recorded in a single month.

In May there were 423 sales in Saskatoon representing a 7% increase compared to last May. So far year to date the total number of sales is down 2% at 1,459 units. Price ranges between $250-500,000 showed positive increases to the number of sales year over year. In 2016. In May of 2017 there were 358 sales in this price range compared to 329 last May. There was a 13% decrease in the number of sales priced between $500-750,000 in May of 2017. Year to date there were 12 sales in excess of $1,000,000 in Saskatoon. Six of these sales were single family homes, two were bare land condo units at the Willows and one sale was a downtown apartment unit. The home that sold for the most so far this year was $2,000,000.

The average number of days required to sell a home in Saskatoon is 48 days. The five year average for May is about 41 days. Based on the number of sales that occurred in May and the number of homes available on the market, it would take 5 months to liquidate the current inventory of properties for sale. The average selling price continues to remain stable at $$349,000. The median sale price also remains relatively unchanged year to date at $329,250. Although the total MLS® dollar volume was up 11.5% when comparing this May 2017 to last, the year to date dollar volume is down 1.3% at $670,000,000.

The market surrounding Saskatoon showed an increase in sales of 10.4% in May, however year to date sales in that market were down 8%. The average selling price for this area is up 7% year to date at $331,450. This market includes the cities of Warman and Martensville as well as other surrounding communities and acreage property.  .

Home Sales Down So Far in 2017

Total home sales in Saskatoon year to date saw a 5% decrease with a total of 1,037 units changing hands. The month of April was also notably quiet with a total of 315 sales, a 16% decrease from 2016. Listing activity is also down by 4% compared to last year with a total of 3,038 new listings introduced to the market so far this year. Listing activity for April was also lower by 10% compared to April of 2016. Inventory levels remain quite high with a total of 1,975 active listings at the end of April. This is considerably higher than the five-year average of 1,700 units. For the last three years, there has been in excess of 1,900 homes available for sale at the end of April. It would be ideal to have around 1,500 units available for sale at this time of year. “Higher inventory levels are a great opportunity for buyers for selection and a reasonable purchase price,” says Jason Yochim, CEO of the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® “The market will eventually shift and those who waited will end up with less selection and more competition for the home they offer on” he adds. 

Higher inventory levels typically mean lower prices, however, for homes priced over $600,000, there has been an increase in the number of sales which sustains the average price even with fewer sales. Even though the average price remains unchanged year over year, the median price has decreased by 1.9%. So far in 2017, there is a 65% increase in homes that sold over $600,000 with a total of 93 sales compared to 56 in 2016. In April alone there were 19 sales over $650,000 compared to just 9 last April, three of the sales were in excess of $1M. Comparatively, there is a notable decrease in homes selling below $500,000. By the end of April 2016 there was a total of 438 home sales, so far this year there are only 358. Year to date the sale of single-detached properties declined by 11% while the number of multi-family unit sales increased by 4%. 

The sales to listing ratio of 37% also confirm that we are firmly in a buyer’s market. This is the lowest it has been for the month of April in over 5 years. At the current rate of sales, it would take over six months to liquidate the existing number of homes that are for sale, the five-year average for months of inventory is 4.5 months. Currently, it takes about 50 days for a home to sell in Saskatoon, just slightly longer than the 46 days of a year ago. Homes that are selling continue to realize sale prices in excess of 97% of the asking price. This underscores the importance of proper pricing in a buyers market. “A buyers market is not one for speculative selling” cautions Yochim. “Today's consumers are very well informed and with many homes to choose from are not afraid to move on if the seller is unwilling to respond to an offer at market value” he adds. 

Activity in the markets surrounding Saskatoon continues to experience a decline in both sales and listing activity. A total of 249 sales at the end of April is a 14% decrease from 2016. The number of homes listed for sale for the first four months of 2017 is down by 13%. The sales to listing ratio for this market is 28% while the time it takes the average house to sell is two months. Homes are realizing sale prices of 94% of the asking price. The number of active listings for the area surrounding Saskatoon, which includes the cities of Warman and Martensville, was down 15% with 979 available properties.

Positive Indicators in Saskatoon Home Market

Year to date, the Saskatoon home market shows positive signs in a few of the key indicators. “There are a few key statistics that we watch ever month to get a sense of where our market is at and where it may be headed” according to Jason Yochim, CEO of the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® .“We keep a close eye on the number of transactions, the inventory levels and the change in pricing.” He adds. 

Year to date home sales are up 4% over 2016 with 558 unit sales. This is comparable to the number of home sales in 2015. The total dollar volume for those sales was just over $186 million, representing a 2% increase over last year. At the end of February, the inventory level for available residential property on the MLS® system in Saskatoon was 1,659 units, 5.4% lower than last year. The lower inventory levels are largely due to a significant drop in the number of new listings added to the MLS® system. So far this year there have been 1,337 new listings in the system compared to 1,410 last year. When comparing new listings for the last month, there were 15.7% fewer properties added to the market this past February than last February. 

A decline in new listings coupled with an increase in sales resulted in a sales-to-listing ratio of 37.4%in February. This is a significant increase from last February where this ratio was 30.9%. A market with a sales-to-listing ratio below 40% is considered to be a solid buyers market. This indicates a positive move towards a more balanced market. “Although we are seeing these positive indicators quite early on, these statistics indicate a shift in the marketplace in a positive direction,” comments Yochim. 

Home prices remain relatively unchanged year to date with the average price down a mere 0.7% to just under $340,000. The median price of $320,000 represents a slight drop of 1.6% year over year. The Home Price Index (HPI) is considered to be the most accurate measure of home values and where the market prices are trending. The HPI composite price is an aggregate of various residential home types in a particular market and is a measurement of change in value over time. A composite value was established with a base year and has been indexed on a monthly basis. The composite value in February was $297,900 representing a 1.2% decrease from a year ago. This value had been on a downward trend since mid-2016 which is not surprising considering elevated inventory levels through the year and a buyers market. 

The average number of days for a home to sell in Saskatoon was 54 days. This is only slightly longer than in 2016 with an average of 52 days. Because today's real estate buyers are well educated on the market, homes are selling at 97% of their asking price which is consistent with last year. 

Slight Downward Pressure on Home Prices 

At the end of the first quarter the number of MLS home sales was 723 units or a 1% increase over last year. The number of properties listed for sale year to date was 2,193, just 2% lower than the first three months of 2016. “Although the first quarter unit sales are comparable to 2016, pricing seems to be slipping slightly” comments Jason Yochim, CEO of the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® “The median price of $320,000 is down 4.3% from a year ago and the average price of $342,100 is down 1.5%.” he adds. The Home Price Index (HPI) published by the Canadian Real Estate Association indicates a downward trend in pricing as well. The composite price, an aggregate of all home types, for Saskatoon has been trending downaward since August of 2016 when the benchmark value was $309,500 compared to $297,900. This composite value reached its peak of $313,800 in July of 2015. The HPI is based on a benchmark value of $133,400 established in January of $2005. This value is indexed every month thereafter representing the changes to that base value. The downward pressure on pricing is likely to remain until there is a decrease in the current inventory of just over 1,850 active listings or an increase in demand.  

Multi-family sales of 220 units was up year to date by 18% compared to 187 unit sales last year. The number of single family sales of 510 units was a slight decline of just over 4% year over year. The federal changes to mortgage qualification introduced in October of 2017 no doubt have had an impact on some who found it harder to qualify for a single family home. These changes increased the number of multi family transactions due buyers qualifying at a substantially lower purchase price. This is reflected in a 5% increase in sales between $200,000 and $350,000 in the first quarter. During this same period, homes priced from $350,000 to $600,000 saw a 13% decline in unit sales.  

There is currently enough existing inventory to last almost six months based on current sales activity. This is slightly higher than the five year average of 4.84 months. For the homes that do sell, currently on average it takes 47 days. This is two days more than the five year average. These homes are selling at just under 98% of the asking price. This is a reflection of the “intelligent buyer” that we see in today’s market place. “Today’s consumer has access to detailed information at their fingertips and know very well what the true market price of a home should be. Sellers are equally informed and when they are able to think objectively, they price to market and the result is a quicker sale with the sale price tight to list.” according to Yochim. The problem lies in most of us unable to be objective even in the face of raw data. The mindset of many home sellers is that their home is worth more than the one down the street because they used ‘heavy duty’ nails in the construction or similar rationale. “This is one of the most critical reasons for enlisting the advice of a professional REALTOR® in pricing your home.”  

Activity in the area surrounding Saskatoon has experienced a decline of almost 17% in the number of sales for the first quarter of the year with 167 total sales. A positive here though is the average price is up 9.2% and the days on market is 64 days compared to 70 for last year. Martensville and Warman have not been affected the same way in the past three years. The city of Martensville experiences 38 sales and 153 listings so far in 2017. By comparison, in the first quarter of 2017 Warman recorded 57 sales and 144 new listings. In the first three months of 2015 Warman had 81 sales compared with 26 in Martensville.  The Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® has a membership of just over 600 licensed and knowledgeable REALTORS® who can provide sound market advice. REALTORS® also subscribe to a strict code of ethics and are dedicated to developing professional standards and continuing education in the real estate profession.  

Positive Start to 2017 Home Sales

Home sales in January were cause for optimism for the year ahead with a 6% increase year over year. Home sales of 185 units last month represented the highest January total since 2014, the five-year average for January is 195. Another positive indicator is the number of homes available for sale. At the end of January, there was a combined total of 1,592 homes for sale in the Saskatoon market, representing the second lowest monthly total in almost two years. The lowest inventory level was December of 2016 with a total of 1,443 properties on the market. “An increase in sales in a typically quiet month is very encouraging” comments Jason Yochim, CEO of the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS® “especially in the wake of the tougher mortgage qualifications introduced last October.”

At current inventory levels, anticipating no increase in demand and no new properties listed for sale, it would take over eight months to liquidate the current inventory of properties. The five-year average for available inventory in the Saskatoon market is just under five months. The “sales to listing ratio” is an indicator of whether we are in a buyers or sellers’ market. It is determined by dividing the number of sales by the number of new listings for a period of time. When this ratio is at 50%, the market is considered balance. The last couple of years has favored buyers in the marketplace with an average sales to listing ratio of 40%. January typically has an uptake of listing activity and quieter sales activity which is reflected in a sales to listing ratio at 26%; the five-year average is 30%.

Homes priced below $400,000 saw a much-needed increase in activity compared to last January with 143 sales between $200,000 and $400,000, a 20% increase year over year. The average sale price for January of $341,800 represented a 4% decrease compared to last year. In 2016 a steady number of sales over $750,000 helped stabilize the average price in spite of a 5% decline in sales. This emphasizes that using an average to determine the true market picture is easily misleading. The median price for last month was $318,500 which was the lowest median price in almost five years. A more reliable indicator of the market is the MLS® Home Price Index® (HPI). It is considered to be the most accurate determinant of where a real estate market is trending. The HPI composite benchmark price has also been trending downward, although very slightly for several months. 

In January, on average it takes 54 days to sell a home in Saskatoon which is consistent with the five-year average of 51 days. This compares to 45 days which is the average of the past 5 years. “In any market, a home that is priced to current market conditions should sell in even less time, often within a week or two.” comments Yochim. “Buyers are well educated on the market and are not fooled by optimistic sellers. However, they are willing to pay market price for the right home in any market. For homes that are selling, the sale prices are being realized within 97% of the asking price.”

Accurate Pricing Key in Successful 2017 Market

Year over year unit sales for the city of Saskatoon saw a 7% decline in 2016. As at December 31, there was a total of 3,679 transactions recorded versus 3,933 in 2015. The total dollar volume for Saskatoon also indicated a 7% decline by years end. There was also a decline in the number of new listings in 2016 of 5% with 9,290 properties placed on the MLS system in Saskatoon last year. In other words, 38% of the homes that were listed ended up selling which is considered a firm buyers’ market. This ratio is what is referred to as a sales-to-listing ratio. A ‘balanced market’ is when one home sells for every two listed and is considered a balanced market at a 50% sales-to–listing ratio. The market for the month of December was in balanced territory with 191 sales and 392 new listings.

The market surrounding Saskatoon which includes the cities of Martensville and Warman saw a year end decline in unit sales by 11% with a total of 1,010 sales by December 31. The total number of new listings for 2016 in the markets outside of Saskatoon was 3,192, a sales-to-listing ration of just under 32%. The city of Martensville saw a 10% increase in unit sales in 2016 while Warman saw a whopping 35% decrease in units sold from 2015 to 2016. Other bedroom communities surrounding Saskatoon saw very little change in units sold year over year.

A home in Saskatoon took an average of 51 days to sell realizing 96.7% of the asking price on average. “There are buyers out there who are ready to act and are willing to pay market value.” Comments Jason Yochim, CEO, Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®, “What this tells me is that if a seller is serious about selling their home the best thing they can do is get sound advice on pricing to the current market we are in. The result is a quicker sale for the maximum sale price. Buyers are well educated and not often fooled into overpaying.” He adds.

The average selling price for a home in Saskatoon in 2016 was just over $350,000 which was only a decline of 1% compared to the average selling price of $354,000 in 2015. This average price was maintained by a year over year increase in the number of homes that sold over $750,000.

The MLS® Home Price Index® is considered to be the most accurate determinant of where a real estate market is trending. The composite benchmark value is an aggregate value of various property types and is used to compare changes in market values and trends. The composite benchmark value has been trending downward slightly since August of 2016. The composite value of $299,700 is down 1.6% from the same period in 2015 and looks to continue downward for the near future.

“2017 is not likely to see a significant change in market conditions, however being properly informed on what those market conditions are and how to properly price is where one of our REALTOR® members is invaluable” adds Yochim. “One of the best ways to stimulate an economy is through a home sale. The average home sale in Saskatchewan generates nearly $50,000 in spin off economic activity. Multiply that by 3,700 transactions.” He adds. REALTORS® also subscribe to a strict code of ethics and are dedicated to developing professional standards and continuing education in the real estate profession.

The month of November saw a decline in sales activity as well as new listings coming on the market in Saskatoon and region. Total dollar volume year to date was $1.65 B, a 4% reduction from 2015 and 18% lower than the same period in 2014.The number of homes that sold in Saskatoon for November was 243 units representing a 14% reduction compared to November 2015. As of the end of last month there was a cumulative total of 3,489 home sales, this is 7% lower than a year ago. The number of homes listed for sale to the end of November 2016 was 8,897. Currently there are1,687 residential properties available for sale in Saskatoon, only the month of January had less product available with 1,612 units. At the current level of sales it would take nearly seven months to liquidate this inventory.

 The average selling price continues to remain virtually unchanged at just over $350,000. Two years ago the average selling price two years ago by comparison was $357,000, at a time when the market was more active. “An increase in sales in the higher end homes has helped to support the average price in the Saskatoon market” states Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. Sales in every price range below $750,000 saw decreases in unit sales however homes priced above that increased year over year. For sales over $1M there were 25 units sold year to date compared to 13 units a year ago. Homes in the price range between $750-800,000 were up 50% year to date over 2015.

 The current sales to listing ratio for November was 37% which is firmly a buyers’ market as it has been all year. Homes are currently taking 50 days on average to sell in Saskatoon with sellers realizing 97% of the asking price. “These statistics tell me that sellers who price to the market will realize a sale in much less time than the average of 50 days and close to their asking price. Those who do not price to market are typically responsible for the low sales to listing ratio.” Comments Yochim. “Buyers are more educated than at any other time and typically know where the market is at.

 There are positives in this quieter real estate market. The recent selling out of the much awaited River Landing condominium project in less than four days proves that location, location, location is key in any market conditions. This occurred in spite of an oversupplied condominium market with somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,000 multi-family units available for sale.

 “The best advice I can give to those who are needing to sell is to get sound pricing, marketing and timing advice from a professionally licensed and trained REALTOR® member of The Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. Real estate is local to specific markets in Saskatoon and every seller’s situation is unique. Impartial and objective advice is critical in a successful sale of residential real estate.” cautions Yochim. REALTORS® also subscribe to a strict code of ethics and are dedicated to developing professional standards and continuing education in the real estate profession.

The month of November saw a decline in sales activity as well as new listings coming on the market in Saskatoon and region. Total dollar volume year to date was $1.65 B, a 4% reduction from 2015 and 18% lower than the same period in 2014.The number of homes that sold in Saskatoon for November was 243 units representing a 14% reduction compared to November 2015. As of the end of last month there was a cumulative total of 3,489 home sales, this is 7% lower than a year ago. The number of homes listed for sale to the end of November 2016 was 8,897. Currently there are1,687 residential properties available for sale in Saskatoon, only the month of January had less product available with 1,612 units. At the current level of sales it would take nearly seven months to liquidate this inventory.

The average selling price continues to remain virtually unchanged at just over $350,000. Two years ago the average selling price two years ago by comparison was $357,000, at a time when the market was more active. “An increase in sales in the higher end homes has helped to support the average price in the Saskatoon market” states Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. Sales in every price range below $750,000 saw decreases in unit sales however homes priced above that increased year over year. For sales over $1M there were 25 units sold year to date compared to 13 units a year ago. Homes in the price range between $750-800,000 were up 50% year to date over 2015.

The current sales to listing ratio for November was 37% which is firmly a buyers’ market as it has been all year. Homes are currently taking 50 days on average to sell in Saskatoon with sellers realizing 97% of the asking price. “These statistics tell me that sellers who price to the market will realize a sale in much less time than the average of 50 days and close to their asking price. Those who do not price to market are typically responsible for the low sales to listing ratio.” Comments Yochim. “Buyers are more educated than at any other time and typically know where the market is at.

There are positives in this quieter real estate market. The recent selling out of the much awaited River Landing condominium project in less than four days proves that location, location, location is key in any market conditions. This occurred in spite of an oversupplied condominium market with somewhere in the neighborhood of 1,000 multi-family units available for sale.

“The best advice I can give to those who are needing to sell is to get sound pricing, marketing and timing advice from a professionally licensed and trained REALTOR® member of The Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. Real estate is local to specific markets in Saskatoon and every seller’s situation is unique. Impartial and objective advice is critical in a successful sale of residential real estate.” cautions Yochim. REALTORS® also subscribe to a strict code of ethics and are dedicated to developing professional standards and continuing education in the real estate profession.

For many the average sale price is used to benchmark where the market is at. Year to date statistics reinforce why that is not a sound practice. As of the end of September, a total of 2,936 unit sales were recorded, a 7% drop from the same period in 2015. By comparison, the average sale price of $351,835 remains virtually unchanged from one year ago. Furthermore, the average sale price for September 2016 was 6% higher than last September. The reason, an increase in the number of properties selling at the higher end of the price range coupled with a decline in more affordable home sales. More specifically, year to date the number of units selling between $300,000 and $500,000 declined by 12% while the number of units selling above $750,000 increased by 20%.

The Home Price Index (HPI) tool was created by the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) as a way to more accurately reflect changes in home pricing and predict pricing trends. The HPI uses a starting point of January of 2002 and establishes a “benchmark” value for a typical property type. This value is then indexed over time to reflect changes in the market. The composite benchmark value for a home in Saskatoon in January of 2002 was $115,000. Currently the composite benchmark price is $308,600. This index has changed very little since January when it was at $305,400. This would indicate little change in value over the first nine months of the year and has remained virtually unchanged since June.  New listings for September were down 20% compared to September of 2015. 

“A reduction in new listings has a positive impact on the overall inventory levels in Saskatoon which have been elevated since the spring of 2015”. comments Jason Yochim, CEO with the Saskatoon Region Association of REALTORS®. “Ideally we would like to see the number of active listings around 1,500 units” he adds. At the end of September, the number of active listings was 1,841, the five-year average is 1,625 units. The high water mark for active listings was 2,081 in June of 2015.

The number of sales for September was 324 units which is a 9% reduction from last year. Year to date the total unit sales was down 7% compared to 3,167 units a year ago. The average time to sell a home in Saskatoon is currently 51 days, the five-year average is 41 days. These homes have been selling for 97.4% of the asking price. “The key element in the sale of a property is proper pricing, buyers are more educated today than ever before,” adds Yochim.